Tag Archives: American Airlines

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted

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This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

It was a busy week for the Things With Wings last week.

First, American Airlines reported its second quarter earnings results. The airline lost a lot of money. $390 million to be exact. $319 million excluding special items. However, you’d never have known it if you listened to the airline’s earnings call — which seemed focused on one thing — liquidity. Oh, and capacity reductions. That’s fine, but there are other aspects of an airline’s operations I’d like to hear about.

Then we had the blockbuster news concerning Continental’s Chairman and CEO, Larry Kellner. As I write in this week’s PBB, even though the management backbench strength at Continental Airlines is strong, and the airline should be able to carry on just fine as Larry goes to seek his fortune in the equity investment game — it’s quite discouraging to see one of the industry’s best and brightest leave.

Following up on our piece in last week’s issue about United’s bone-headed (or would that be heavy-handed) attempts to get travel agencies to take on more financial risk — or rather some travel agencies — the airline said late last week that it is going to give agencies 60 days to implement the business operation changes it seeks.

This whole thing still reeks. Nothing the airline says rings true.

Southwest Airlines had its own place in the spotlight last week, or would that be the sunlight, as the airline had a 737-300 aircraft develop a hole in the roof while enroute from Nashville to BWI. Not what the airline wants or needs — especially considering the issues the airline has had with the FAA concerning fuselage checks in the past. Preliminary NTSB report says there was no evidence of previous corrosion at the site.

That was not the only bad news Southwest had last week. The airline was also notified that its debt rating with Moody’s is under review, signaling a potential downgrade.

The Senate produced its version of an FAA Reauthorization bill last week. How did it differ from the House version? It differed on quite a few items. We talk more about that in this week’s issue.

Those misguided folks at the US Airways Pilot Association, the pilot union that was created in an attempt to circumvent the original ALPA seniority award that was handed down after US Airways and America West combined forces — had their head handed to them on a plate by U.S. District Judge Neil Wake last week. Wake issued his final injunctive order on the case brought against USAPA by the former America West pilots. Yes, we talk about this too.

Oh, and speaking of USAPA, we also give them, and our readers, a handy step-by-step instruction of how you correctly determine just how much an airline executive makes, using SEC documentation. Apparently the folks at USAPA have a problem figuring these things out.

British Airways raids its guaranteed employee pension benefit larder, Air Canada gets all of its employees “on board” with its 21-month contract extension program, and 215 Delta pilots sign up for the airline’s sweetened “early-out” package. Somehow I think the guys in suits over in Atlanta had hoped that number had been higher.

All this and more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter.

If you are a subscriber, you can access this week’s issue here. If not, you can learn how you can become a subscriber by clicking here.

JP Morgan’s Streeter Talks About Breaking Covenants, Not Guitars

Had to chuckle this morning when I read the JP Morgan Equity/Debt review of American Airlines’ earnings release.

As most of you know, Jamie Baker is the equity analyst for JP Morgan, but Mark Streeter handles the debt side.

Mark’s snarky side came out today in his headline as he wrote in the note,

Some Airlines Bust Guitars, Some Also Bust Covenants – We have been worried for some time that airlines (AMR, LCC & UAUA, more so than others) could violate bank debt covenants later this year or early next year if industry conditions don’t suddenly improve. AMR likely shared this concern as the company last month sought and received fixed charge coverage relief from banks. Specifically, the AMR bank debt fixed charge coverage ratio for the June 2009 quarter was waived. Going forward, the ratio remains at 0.95x for the September 2009 quarter (no change) but stays at that levels through year-end (i.e. lower threshold) with reduced step-ups through September 2010 as well. While our more bearish-than-consensus revenue forecast continues to show AMR tight (if not busting) covenants during 2H09 (along with others), additional bank relief remains achievable, in our view.”

As for the all-so-important liquidity question, the duo commented,

“AMR’s Liquidity Pantry Is Still Fairly Well Stocked – Unlike the pantry at USAirways, which we consider bare, and the pantry at United, which is stocked with canned goods long past their expiration date (i.e. older aircraft and parts that are very tough to finance), AMR boasts of $3.7 billion in unencumbered asset provisions, real liquidity flexibility, in our opinion (with the untapped AAdvantage forward mileage sale the most obvious component). Now, not all of the contributing assets to this estimate are readily-financeable (such as AMR’s ownership of Eagle) but at least $2-$2.5 billion represents real liquidity flexibility in our opinion. Furthermore, $500 million of additional assets will become unencumbered later this year (including some not-too-old-to-refinance aircraft falling out of maturing EETCs). The bottom line is that USAirways and United are at or past V1 in their burn-the-furniture liquidity takeoff rolls, in our view, while AMR is just now nudging its throttles forward, with still-adequate runway remaining. Boiled down, we remain of the view that Chapter 11 can be averted at AMR.”

Good Morning! PBB On Its Way; ALGT Keeps Piling On The Good News

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Good morning earthlings. We are putting the final touches on this week’s long issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. Yes, it’s our first official earnings issue of the first quarter earnings season, and both American Airlines and Southwest Airlines get a very long look in this week’s issue.

I’ll post a note here when it is finished and posted for subscribers to read.

But in the meantime, I just wanted to mention an extremely impressive metric that was posted by Allegiant Travel in the first quarter.

While it is impressive enough that the airline posted better than expected profits for the quarter late on Sunday — as the company reported earnings of $28.2 million or $1.37 a share — that is only the tip of the impressive news.

The really impressive statistic in these results?

The airline posted a 31.3% operating margin.

Got that?

If that mind-numbing number doesn’t get your attention, I don’t know what will.

More later. Have to go finish this week’s PBB.

AMR, Parent of American Airlines, Posts $375 Million Loss

Today AMR, parent of American Airlines reported their first quarter results.

What is it they say — it’s all about managing expectations.

And in the case of American’s first quarter numbers that were released today, that is exactly what management did — as the airline had just recently warned Wall Street that its first quarter numbers might not be as strong as first expected.

As a result of that guidance, analyst forecasts were then lowered.

Previous to the airline’s announcement today, the analysts’ consensus forecast a loss of $1.62 a share.

So today, when the airline reported a loss of $375 million or $1.35 a share — the shares of the airline took a nice bounce, gaining 19% on the day, closing at $5.01.

The reason for the better-than-expected numbers? Operating costs were down a bit more than forecast and RASM declines were not as sharp as previously indicated.

American’s stock was not the only airline stock that picked up some ground today — comments the airline made in its earnings call helped push up other airline stocks as well, as CEO Gerard Arpey indicated that the airline is not seeing any “further deterioration” as those in the revenue world like to put it. But, just as Alaska Airlines indicated in an SEC filing last week, Arpey said that American is also looking at May and June bookings that are off noticeably from this same time last year. He said that May and June bookings are off by about 2 percentage points.

This percentage drop is more or less in line with what Alaska reported last week.

AMR ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in cash and short- term investments, including $462 million that is restricted.

Last Holdout to ASAP Program Participation Rejoins the Fold: APA and American Bury Their Differences

More good news today on the airline union front.

It was announced this afternoon that the pilots at American have come to terms with the company on a new Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP) participation agreement.

As readers know, this issue has been a burr in my side. The ASAP program, which encourages pilots to self-report safety problems without fear of retaliation, knowledge of which can benefit pilots from all airlines, had become a “leverage” tool used by a number of airline pilot unions over the last couple of years.

As a result, pilots at American, Delta, and US Airways had stopped participating in their respective programs, citing a fear of lack of confidentiality — or potential efforts to “get back” at those employees who participated in the program.

But after pilots at Delta Air Lines rejoined the program earlier this year, following the lead of the pilots at Northwest Airlines, the FAA took a hard line stand — telling airlines and their pilot unions that were still not participating that they needed to rejoin the program, sooner rather than later.

With this news, all the major airline pilot groups are now once again participating in what is, no question, an excellent safety program that is run in conjunction with the FAA.

The pilots at US Airways had already agreed to participate in their company’s program again about two weeks ago.

ISTAT 2009: The First Time I’ve Heard Universal Gloom and Doom

One of the best airline industry conferences around is the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading. ISTAT for short.

Don’t let the long name confuse you. This is the group you join if you sell airplanes, lease airplanes, want to lease airplanes, appraise airplanes, you name it.

As I have told PBB subscribers for years, it never matters what the U.S. airline industry is doing at any given point in time — you come to one of these conferences and these are the guys who make money whether the economy is up or down. Most recently, the downturn after 2001 didn’t particularly hurt their pockets either — as aircraft sales continued to soar internationally, even if U.S. airlines more or less stopped ordering aircraft.

But this year, for the first year that I have ever experienced –and I have been coming to these for more than 10 years — the tone is definitely different. Scottsdale is still gorgeous, but the mood here this week is definitely not what one usually encounters at an ISTAT function.

This year, as one person told me this morning, “It’s scary.”

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President with Avitas summed it up by saying, “It sucks. That’s an industry technical term by the way.”

Fred Klein, President of Aviation Specialists told me before his stint on the ISTAT Appraiser’s Forum, “I can’t believe that a handful of U.S. financial entities have managed to bring down the whole fucking worldwide financial system.”

I asked, “Fred, can I quote you on that?” Fred, “Yes, damn it.”

That kind of gives you a feel for the mood of the crowd. Deals are not getting done. Financing has dried up. Many aircraft values are down 20% since this time last year.

I have to hand it to the guys who put on the conference this year though. Is that an off-the-wall backdrop on stage or what? Doug Runte, Managing Partner with Piper Jaffray did look a bit uncomfortable when he was asked to come through the center of the turbine to the sounds of Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida” though. Doug moderated the Appraiser’s Panel. Doug’s a good guy. And an art history major to boot.

Big Catch for Tomorrow: The Leeham Report’s Scott Hamilton will be interviewing ILFC’s Steve Hazy tomorrow on stage. Will not want to miss that.

Tuesday Night: Robert Crandall, former Chairman and CEO of American Airlines will be honored by ISTAT with a lifetime achievement award. And guess who else is supposed to be in the house? Yep. Herb.

I would bet money we are going to have a little roast of Bob before the evening is over tomorrow night — compliments of Mr. Kelleher.

Delta Air Lines And Pilots Agree to Reinstate ASAP Program

This is great news.

As I had written in PlaneBusiness Banter in December, it did appear that Delta Air Lines and its pilot union were close to coming to an agreement which would see the airline reinstate its Aviation Safety Action Program.

This morning the airline announced just that.

From the airline’s release:

“Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to reinstate its Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP) covering pre-merger Delta pilots. The revised program mirrors an existing Northwest Airlines pilot ASAP program.”

In addition to the reinstated pilot ASAP, Delta has formal ASAP programs in place for its dispatchers and Technical Operations employees, and other safety reporting programs for flight attendants and ground employees. Delta also will continue ASAP programs currently covering pre-merger Northwest pilots, dispatchers and load planners, and other safety reporting programs for its other workgroups.

This means that almost 17,000 employees of the airline are now covered by some form of voluntary safety reporting system at Delta.

Excellent news. Just makes me want to do a little happy dance outside. Only problem is that if I did, I’d probably fall on the ice and break a limb. So — happy dance will be postponed until it’s a little warmer. (Yes, I’m at the Dallas-Ft.Worth branch office this week.)

We have two more major airlines and their pilots groups to beat into submission in regard to ASAP participation. And we all know which two airlines I am talking about. American Airlines and US Airways.

And no, as I told my PBB subscribers not too long ago, I’m not going to shut up until the last two stragglers are back in the fold. ASAP program participation is too valuable to all concerned.

Here’s Why AMR Shares Sank Today…

The future does not bode well on the cost side.

We wrote earlier today that while we thought United Airline’s numbers today were worse at first blush, that investors were punishing shares of AMR much more severely.

Here’s why.

The airline gave what could at best be called less than encouraging cost guidance for 2009.

Analysts Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter with JP Morgan issued a note today concerning the results in which they said,

“Unlike UAUA, We’re Discouraged By AMR Cost Guidance – Pension expense appears to lie at the heart of what we consider to be discouraging 2009 ex-fuel cost guidance from AMR, a phenomenon that may have implications for CAL & DAL, though not LCC or JBLU. Specifically, AMR is guiding to a 2009, consolidated ex-fuel CASM increase of 7.6%, materially higher than our ambitious +4.1% forecast and representing over an untaxed dollar in negative earnings variance – holding other inputs constant. On the fuel side, Q109 $2.04/gallon all-in guidance is consistent with our $2.10, as is AMR’s full-year $2.06 all-in (identical to our forecast).”

And while United Airlines has garnered the most negative publicity over the last month or so concerning the high cost of its ill-placed fourth quarter fuel hedges, AMR got hit in the fourth quarter as well.

As Jamie explained,

“Similar to UAUA’s release this morning (and to what we expect to hear from those who have yet to report), AMR’s liquidity was clearly hurt by incremental cash collateral deposits posted with fuel hedging counterparties. AMR ended 4Q08 with an unrestricted cash balance of $3.1 billion, compared to $4.6 billion as of 3Q08. The implied $1.5 billion sequential net cash burn was driven by the company’s cash collateral postings on under-water fuel hedges ($575 million in cash collateral with counterparties at the end of 4Q08), debt and capital lease principal payments, capital expenditures, and changes in working capital (exact figures for debt amortization, capex, and change in working capital were not disclosed in the press release). At the end of 3Q08, AMR held $240 million in cash deposits from fuel hedge counterparties, but with falling oil prices during 4Q08, the company saw a reversal of approximately $815 million, resulting in the $575 million figure mentioned above. The worse than expected pension cost guidance is worth monitoring. Nevertheless, we expect AMR’s liquidity profile to improve significantly in 2009 as under-water hedges roll-off and the airline is able to benefit from much lower y/y oil prices.”

American Airlines and United Spill the Fourth Quarter Beans

It’s that time once again dear friends. That time when we get the straight scoop on just how bad, or how good, the previous quarter was for our friends, The Things With Wings.

This morning both AMR, parent of American Airlines, and UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, reported their fourth quarter 2008 earnings.

Top line assessment? Both airlines reported numbers that came in comfortably within previously anticipated analyst forecasts.

That does not mean, however, that the numbers were overly pleasant to digest.

Especially in the case of United, which reported a net loss of $1.3 billion or $9.91, compared with a loss of $53 million or $0.47 a share the previous year. Excluding non-cash, net mark-to- market hedge losses and certain accounting charges, the airline reported a pre-tax loss of $547 million for the quarter. This figure compares to an adjusted pre-tax loss of $105 million in the fourth quarter of 2007.

A huge contributing factor here was the fact the airline got caught on the wrong side of some very expensive hedge positions during the fourth quarter. The effect of this wrong-way bet was clearly seen in the sharp drop in the airline’s cash balance for the quarter.

At the end of the quarter, United was sitting on only $2 billion in unrestricted cash, a restricted cash balance of $272 million, and $965 million in cash deposits held by its fuel hedge counterparties. The airline saw $989 million in cash go out the door during the fourth quarter in operating cash flow and it posted a negative $1.1 billion in free cash flow during the quarter.

Excluding one-time items, the airline said it lost $4.22 per share compared with Wall Street analyst consensus forecast of $4.42.

In the case of American, the airline reported a loss of $340 million or $0.77 a share, excluding special items. This performance was more or less in line with expectations as well.

A year ago the airline reported a loss of $184 million or $0.74 a share, without special items.

The full American Airlines’ release has yet to hit the wires.

We’ll also learn more about the results from both airlines later today, after their respective earnings calls.

In the meantime, go have some more coffee.

Airline Traffic Reports Roll Out for December

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If it’s the first week of the month, that means it’s time for airline traffic reports.

And it’s time for all of us who look at them with a jaundiced eye to try and figure out what they mean. Actually all they mean is that for the month of December a particular airline did this.

In this environment, the question of whether they portend any kind of trend or not is a rather risky assumption.

The good news overall is that demand held up fairly well in December for the most part. However, one caveat. Remember that for the purposes of the reporting month, the backend of Thanksgiving travel fell into the “December” reporting month this year.

In addition to the usual traffic reports, Continental Airlines also issued its RASM estimates for the month. On that front, the news was not bad either.

Commenting on both topics, JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote this week,

“Demand weak but steady, for now. November was a noisy month, requiring yr/yr adjustments for the portion of Thanksgiving travel falling in December and a higher November weekend-to-weekday ratio (weekend revenue production is typically penalized by lower business travel). Additionally, disproportionate leisure demand in the final two weeks likely resulted in higher revenue retention as weather deteriorated across much of the country (vacationers are more apt to push on, whereas business travelers give up more easily – as did this analyst in the week before Christmas). So while December offers no assurances as to F2009’s demand outcome, the aforementioned adjustments do suggest that while weak, December does not appear to have gotten any weaker than November for Continental. Furthermore, given Continental’s recent relative RASM outperformance, our ATA December mainline RASM forecast of 2.5% does not appear to be in jeopardy.”

In terms of Continental’s RASM performance, Jamie added, “December better than feared. Continental December mainline and consolidated RASM rose 4.5% and 4%, respectively, a respectable outcome versus our more dire +1% consolidated forecast. Based on the midpoints of this guidance, consolidated revenue fell 4.5%, while yield rose 2.4%. Additionally, November’s initial 1.5% consolidated RASM midpoint was slightly lowered to +1.2%.”

As for the basics, Continental reported that consolidated RPMs were down 6.7% while capacity was down 8.1%, resulting in a 79.9% load factor, up 1.2 points from December of 2007.

United Airlines

RPMs were down 11.5% in December, as the airline slashed capacity by some 12.7%. This resulted in a load factor of 79.9%, an increase of 1.1 points from December 2007.

Note for you trend watchers: The airline reported that traffic fell faster on its Pacific and Atlantic routes. (More ammunition for the idea that the glory days of continued international growth are coming to a screeching halt.)

Southwest Airlines

RPMs were up 1.1%, while capacity declined 1%. This resulted in 1.5% increase in load factor.

This was a nice rebound from Southwest’s rather anemic November numbers.

Allegiant Airlines

RPMs were up 9.6% while capacity was down 2.6%. Ah….now here are some healthy numbers.

This resulted in the airline posing an 88.7% load factor, up from 78.9% last year. That’s a 10.2 point increase – the largest posted so far by a U.S. carrier.

Delta AIr Lines

Delta reported that RPMs were up 0.7% for the month, while capacity was down 2.4%. This resulted in a load factor increase of 2.4 points over December 2007 numbers.

Again, however, as we saw with the United numbers, the international numbers were not too pretty. The airline reported that international RPMs were up 9.2%, but capacity was up 13.7%. This resulted in a decline in load factor of 3.2 points.

American Airlines

American reported that both domestic and international traffic declined in December, unlike United and Delta, which both posted increases in their domestic traffic.

This makes sense, in that American is taking a bigger hit because of its previous heavy investment banking/Wall Street trans-Atlantic business. A fact the airline supported by its comment that its sharpest decline in international traffic was on the trans-Atlantic segment, which was down 8%.

The airline reported that domestic RPMs were down 9.6% while capacity was down 11.8%. Meanwhile international traffic was down 5.7% on a capacity reduction of only 3.2%.

Overall, the airline ended the month with a 79.2% load factor, up 0.4 points from December 2007.

AirTran

AirTran saw RPMs up 2.3% in December, while capacity was down 6.9%. This resulted in a very nice increase in load factor for the month — up 7.1 points to 79.8%.