Tag Archives: United Airlines

AirTran and Allegiant Post Profits: Delta Air Lines Posts Loss; UAL and American Put on S&P Notice

Another day, another round of airline earnings reports — and yet another notice from Standard & Poor’s that another airline is now on credit watch, with further rating downgrades a distinct possibility.

Allegiant Travel Company posted results late Tuesday while AirTran came flying in today. The one thing both airlines have in common? They both posted nice profits for the quarter.

Take these guys out and buy them a beer. They certainly deserve it.

Allegiant posted a profit of $23.8 million, up 801% from a year ago. The airline flies only MD-80s. I would have expected nothing less, considering the drop in the price of fuel.

But there is much more to the Allegiant story as those of you who hang out around here know. And in regard to their overall business model — which relies heavily on ancillary revenue — this quarter really didn’t disappoint as the airline saw its ancillary revenues per ASM increase 17%.

AirTran, which is currently running kind of a hybrid operation in terms of ancillary revenues and more demand based scheduling that has been so advantageous to Allegiant versus the more traditional legacy carrier business model turned in another good quarter today as well.

The airline posted a profit of $78.4 million or $0.56. This was a huge turnaround from last year, when the airline posted a loss of $14.8 million or $0.14.

Excluding unrealized derivative gains associated with the airline’s hedging activities, the airline posted a profit of $46.6 million or $0.34.

Interestingly, even here though, unlike at Allegiant, revenues were down. At Allegiant the airline saw operating revenues up 12.5%. on a 30.3% growth in ASMs no less.

AirTran posted a 12.9% drop in revenues. However, the airline also posted a whopping 27.3% drop in operating expenses. There is where the profit came from. ASMs here were down 7.6% for the quarter.

All said and done — a good quarter for both airlines. Especially considering the rest of the carnage we’ve seen reported from almost everybody else.

One late note that hit the wires after the close today. Standard and Poor’s said this afternoon that it had put UAL Corp., the parent of United Airlines on credit watch for a possible further downgrade.

The company’s S&P rating is already buried in the “junk” status, sitting at a “B -.”

S&P also warned that AMR, parent of American AIrlines is also now on the bad list as well, as it was also placed on the list for a potential downgrade. American currently is also rated “B -.”

We’ll look at the Delta Air Lines loss in another post.

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted

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This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

It was a busy week for the Things With Wings last week.

First, American Airlines reported its second quarter earnings results. The airline lost a lot of money. $390 million to be exact. $319 million excluding special items. However, you’d never have known it if you listened to the airline’s earnings call — which seemed focused on one thing — liquidity. Oh, and capacity reductions. That’s fine, but there are other aspects of an airline’s operations I’d like to hear about.

Then we had the blockbuster news concerning Continental’s Chairman and CEO, Larry Kellner. As I write in this week’s PBB, even though the management backbench strength at Continental Airlines is strong, and the airline should be able to carry on just fine as Larry goes to seek his fortune in the equity investment game — it’s quite discouraging to see one of the industry’s best and brightest leave.

Following up on our piece in last week’s issue about United’s bone-headed (or would that be heavy-handed) attempts to get travel agencies to take on more financial risk — or rather some travel agencies — the airline said late last week that it is going to give agencies 60 days to implement the business operation changes it seeks.

This whole thing still reeks. Nothing the airline says rings true.

Southwest Airlines had its own place in the spotlight last week, or would that be the sunlight, as the airline had a 737-300 aircraft develop a hole in the roof while enroute from Nashville to BWI. Not what the airline wants or needs — especially considering the issues the airline has had with the FAA concerning fuselage checks in the past. Preliminary NTSB report says there was no evidence of previous corrosion at the site.

That was not the only bad news Southwest had last week. The airline was also notified that its debt rating with Moody’s is under review, signaling a potential downgrade.

The Senate produced its version of an FAA Reauthorization bill last week. How did it differ from the House version? It differed on quite a few items. We talk more about that in this week’s issue.

Those misguided folks at the US Airways Pilot Association, the pilot union that was created in an attempt to circumvent the original ALPA seniority award that was handed down after US Airways and America West combined forces — had their head handed to them on a plate by U.S. District Judge Neil Wake last week. Wake issued his final injunctive order on the case brought against USAPA by the former America West pilots. Yes, we talk about this too.

Oh, and speaking of USAPA, we also give them, and our readers, a handy step-by-step instruction of how you correctly determine just how much an airline executive makes, using SEC documentation. Apparently the folks at USAPA have a problem figuring these things out.

British Airways raids its guaranteed employee pension benefit larder, Air Canada gets all of its employees “on board” with its 21-month contract extension program, and 215 Delta pilots sign up for the airline’s sweetened “early-out” package. Somehow I think the guys in suits over in Atlanta had hoped that number had been higher.

All this and more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter.

If you are a subscriber, you can access this week’s issue here. If not, you can learn how you can become a subscriber by clicking here.

JP Morgan’s Streeter Talks About Breaking Covenants, Not Guitars

Had to chuckle this morning when I read the JP Morgan Equity/Debt review of American Airlines’ earnings release.

As most of you know, Jamie Baker is the equity analyst for JP Morgan, but Mark Streeter handles the debt side.

Mark’s snarky side came out today in his headline as he wrote in the note,

Some Airlines Bust Guitars, Some Also Bust Covenants – We have been worried for some time that airlines (AMR, LCC & UAUA, more so than others) could violate bank debt covenants later this year or early next year if industry conditions don’t suddenly improve. AMR likely shared this concern as the company last month sought and received fixed charge coverage relief from banks. Specifically, the AMR bank debt fixed charge coverage ratio for the June 2009 quarter was waived. Going forward, the ratio remains at 0.95x for the September 2009 quarter (no change) but stays at that levels through year-end (i.e. lower threshold) with reduced step-ups through September 2010 as well. While our more bearish-than-consensus revenue forecast continues to show AMR tight (if not busting) covenants during 2H09 (along with others), additional bank relief remains achievable, in our view.”

As for the all-so-important liquidity question, the duo commented,

“AMR’s Liquidity Pantry Is Still Fairly Well Stocked – Unlike the pantry at USAirways, which we consider bare, and the pantry at United, which is stocked with canned goods long past their expiration date (i.e. older aircraft and parts that are very tough to finance), AMR boasts of $3.7 billion in unencumbered asset provisions, real liquidity flexibility, in our opinion (with the untapped AAdvantage forward mileage sale the most obvious component). Now, not all of the contributing assets to this estimate are readily-financeable (such as AMR’s ownership of Eagle) but at least $2-$2.5 billion represents real liquidity flexibility in our opinion. Furthermore, $500 million of additional assets will become unencumbered later this year (including some not-too-old-to-refinance aircraft falling out of maturing EETCs). The bottom line is that USAirways and United are at or past V1 in their burn-the-furniture liquidity takeoff rolls, in our view, while AMR is just now nudging its throttles forward, with still-adequate runway remaining. Boiled down, we remain of the view that Chapter 11 can be averted at AMR.”

By Popular Demand: United Breaks Guitars

Okay, I give in.

Either I talk about this, or you guys are going to continue to pelt me unmercifully until I do!

No question that the number one item generating reader response in the email bag this week is the case of United Airlines and Dave Carroll’s smashed guitar.

It appears that Dave Carroll of the band Sons of Maxwell hopped a plane with his bandmates from Halifax to Omaha by way of Chicago last year. As the plane unloaded atn O’Hare, Dave happens to look out the window in time to witness the baggage handlers throwing around instrument cases, namely THEIR instrument cases, like beach balls.

He said something to the flight attendants on board — but was met, as he put it, with “disinterest and disregard.”

Fast forward to Omaha, and no, Dave is not surprised at all when he finds that the base of his 710 acoustic Taylor guitar is smashed when he retrieves it from baggage claim. However, the show must go on, and Dave makes do with a stand-in.

A week later Dave made a formal complaint to United, which he says was never acknowledged. Over the next several months, Dave says that he called, emailed, and generally tried to get attention paid to his situation, and the best he received was a denial based on the fact that he didn’t “complain in the right place, or at the right time.”

Having spent some $1200 to repair his guitar, Dave was still not a happy man. Nor was his guitar the beauty she used to be.

So Dave did what song writers do.

He sat down and wrote a song about the whole thing, “United Breaks Guitars.” Actually he wrote three songs. “United Breaks Guitars” is actually “Song One.” “Song Two” is supposed to be posted shortly.

The video of “Song One” was posted on YouTube this week and it has already generated about 1.5 million views. “Song Two” is apparently already written and the video is “underway.” “Song Three” is still in the creative process.

For those of you with really enquiring minds, or if you just want to see some cute shots of Dave (hey, he’s a doll — with a Canadian accent no less) you can read the long version of the story on his website.

The PR machine at United has ground itself into action over this. In an update video, Dave says that the airline has, belatedly, offered to hand over some bucks. Dave says in the video that he doesn’t want the money. But he does want United to take the money and give it to a charitable organization. And yes, then United needs to tell all of us just which organization that was.

In the meantime, he told the last person he dealt with at United, Ms. Irlweg, that he was going to write three songs, and that is what he still intends to do.

Can’t wait to see and hear song two — which apparently deals mainly with “Ms. Irlweg.”

A story like this warms my heart. For more than one reason. The main one being that it illustrates so clearly why old style methods of “command and control” management and/or PR just are not going to cut it anymore these days.

You can’t control the web. You can’t keep this guy from writing his songs. And an offer to compensate him at this point — not enough. The airline comes across as slow-footed and dim-witted.

It’s a PR nightmare — one that all companies, not just airlines, need to understand.

Enquiring minds want to know… I wonder if United made it even worse and “requested” that he not post any more songs — when they finally made him their “compensation” offer this week?”

Airline Analyst Dan McKenzie Resurfaces

This week I was happy to see an old name reappear at the top of a handful of airline research reports. That name? Dan McKenzie.

Most recently Dan was the airline analyst for Credit Suisse. Dan has now resurfaced as the airline analyst for Next Generation Equity Research.

This week Dan initiated coverage on JetBlue, Southwest and AirTran.

Dan initiated coverage of JetBlue with a “buy” rating and a $6 target price.

In his note, Dan commented,

Our 2009 profit forecast is largely in line with a consensus outlook, however, our modestly better 2010 outlook results from jetBlue’s new revenue management system, legacy carriers that continue to exit jetBlue’s largest markets, and revenues that begin to finally trickle in from a Lufthansa code share (which is not yet announced but a logical assumption in our view given the close relationship between the two carriers).

Despite its smaller size and five years of reported losses or weak profits, our outlook is on balance positive based on a number of unique findings in our proprietary capacity study.

We found the industry cutting head to head flying by 15% in jetBlue’s routes, leaving jetBlue with the industry’s best competitive dynamic. In particular, we found AMR cutting as much as of 50% of its flying in jetBlue’s top 50 markets (airport to airport), while other carriers are cutting 15-30%.

At Fort Lauderdale, a focus city, we found both AMR and US Airways shrinking 47% and 14% respectively (as jetBlue grows +16%).

Dan also initiated coverage of Southwest Airlines.

Dan assigned Southwest a “neutral” rating and a $7 target price.

In his note, Dan wrote,

Southwest is the industry’s best fundamental story and as such, continues to be a longer-term play on the industry. However, given our anticipation of upcoming earnings disappointments, we’d wait for a better entry point.

Southwest is transitioning from a growth carrier to a cyclical carrier, but it’s not there yet. Substantial market share gains against weak legacy carriers underpin our view that the industry consolidates over the next two years, and Southwest is positioned to be a primary beneficiary.

Our slightly more aggressive valuation multiple vs the Street partially factors in earnings optionality from further industry consolidation over a 2 year time horizon.

Despite a cost structure that has inflated over the years, Southwest is still the lowest cost producer. And its cost advantage is set to widen as legacy carriers reset labor contracts higher.

In the near term, Dan said the airline’s revenues and cost headwinds are pressuring margins. Because or this, and the fact the airline now has to renegotiate its pilot contract, Dan advises, “We’re not telling investors to race into thie stock, though for those that can look longer-term, Southwest continues to be a great play on the industry.”

And finally, Dan also initiated coverage on AirTran this week. AirTran also received a “neutral” ranking from McKenzie, along with a $7 price target.

In his note on AirTran, Dan wrote,

Following years of growth, AirTran, along with others, is responding to a demand shock by cutting growth and spending. The network changes position the carrier to report profits and begin the process of balance sheet repair (which is in contrast to AirTran’s 2008 loss that nearly erased five years of profits).

AirTran, like others, lacks adequate pricing power given industry overcapacity which means profits will remain levered to fuel prices. However, when removing fuel from the equation, upside to our modest profit this year and next appears unlikely based on our proprietary network study.

We found competitors cutting head to head flying on AirTran’s routes by 1.9% in 2Q09 and by 5.5% when factoring in indirect competition. While it’s always encouraging to see less capacity, AirTran’s competitive dynamic nonetheless ranks last on our industry measures.

AirTran’s smaller size and lack of dominance in its markets leaves its revenues more exposed (vs peers) to larger and better capitalized competitors. As one of the lowest cost, lowest fare carriers in the industry, AirTran’s cost structure is thus a critical source of competitive advantage.

AirTran’s current level of liquidity is not robust and limits the carrier strategically, but it’s adequate. And while AirTran’s liquidity strengthens on our outlook, an even stronger balance sheet would aid AirTran’s competitive position and revenue stability. As a result, we don’t rule out new equity issues (perhaps in the $7 to $10 stock price range).

Republic Holdings To Buy Frontier Airlines? Yowsa — Wonder What United Airlines Thinks of This?

Just never know what news is going to come across the wires these days.

Hi guys.

It’s good to be back.

Yes, moi has been a bit offline over the last month or so. No, I still love you. It was not because of anything you said. Or did. Or didn’t do. Stop it.

Without going into detail, maybe this analogy will help explain. If someone is a pilot, then it’s pretty hard to also work the back of the plane, sell the tickets at the counter and make sure the engine is functioning properly.

Moving, new website drama and delays, exhaustion. I just had to step back and concentrate on our flagship operation — PlaneBusiness Banter for a bit.

But hey — as I told PBB subscribers today — it’s time to get back into the swing of things.

And what fortuitous timing for our coming out party!

This afternoon the newswires were literally abuzz with the news that Republic Holdings is buying Frontier Airlines.

As we all know, Frontier has been trying to put together a financing deal that would allow it to exit bankruptcy protection.

We also all know that Republic had already stepped up its financial involvement with Frontier as part of its current bankruptcy process.

Yes, well — this afternoon Frontier announced that it has entered into an agreement under which Republic will serve as the equity sponsor for Frontier’s reorganization plan.

But the big newsmaking kicker is this: Republic will then purchase 100% of Frontier’s equity for $108.75 million

Under the agreement, Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. would become a wholly owned subsidiary of Republic.

Frontier Airlines and its short-haul unit, Lynx Aviation, will keep their current names and operate as they do now.

A hearing on the proposed deal is now scheduled in bankruptcy court for July 13.

Frontier’s reorganization plan calls for general unsecured creditors to get $28.75 million.

It said an additional $40 million of the sale proceeds would repay outstanding “debtor-in-possession” financing from Republic Airways Holdings.

If approved by the bankruptcy court, Frontier’s current equity “would be extinguished and holders of that equity would not receive any recovery,” the airline’s statement said.

Okay, so while this is great news for Frontier Airlines — I think a very real question is this one — what happens when Republic, which does a chunk of regional flying for United Airlines, essentially becomes the new owner of Frontier — a major thorn in the side of United?

Stay tuned. This one should be fun to watch.

If One Has to Be Somewhere, It Might As Well Be The Arizona Biltmore

Today is the first day of the 2009 Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airline Symposium. Yours truly is sitting on the back row of what is a gorgeous meeting room at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel with Dan Reed from USA Today and Brett Snyder, aka Cranky Flyer. Susan Carey from the Wall Street Journal is sitting a few rows in front of us, and there are a few other media types floating around.

Today has been a good start to what is always one of my favorite industry get-togethers. There are no power point presentations, the dress is casual, and the company is great.

DOT secretary Ray LaHood spoke to a packed house at lunch. John Byerly, deputy assistant secretary for Transportation Affairs at the State Department seemed to be more excited than most at comments that LaHood made, as, according to Byerly, it was the first public confirmation that the new administration is firmly (and trust me, LaHood was VERY direct and forceful about the fact) behind two major items. One — the new NextGen navigation system and two, the concept of “Open Skies.”

According to John, who came over and talked to me after the speech, this was the first time there had been public confirmation of the “Open Skies” support. Not that there was that much danger this would not the case. But I can understand why he was happy. As he said, “Whew, that’s going to make my job much easier!”

John, of course, is preparing to start work on stage two of the EU/U.S. air liberalization agreement.

Some people wondered whether or not DOT Secretary LaHood would fomally announce the symposium moderator Randy Babbitt’s nomination as the new FAA administrator at the conference, but there was no official announcement today.

However, that’s not to say that LaHood did not discuss the topic. He made a point to discuss the extensive and grueling “vetting” process that nominees have to endure. My take on his comments at lunch were that this was why Babbitt was not announced formally — the process has simply not been completed.

For those fans of old line airline types, Bill Franke was on the panel before the one that is speaking now. Yes, a real live recipient of the PlaneBusiness Ron Allen Airline (Mis) Management Award. That’s okay. United’s Glenn Tilton is our luncheon speaker tomorrow. As most of you know, he received a special PlaneBusiness Greed Award the year United came out of bankruptcy.

Meanwhile yours truly will participate on the labor management panel tomorrow afternoon.

Ye haw!

Virgin UnAmerica(n)

Today the Wall Street Journal ran a story which seems to confirm what we had assumed was going to happen, as we had discussed in PlaneBusiness Banter a number of times over the last several months.

The two “U.S.” firms that invested in Richard Branson’s Virgin America operation have apparently taken advantage of the fine print in their investing agreement with the airline and headed for the hills.

These investors controlled 77% of the airline.

Since U.S. carriers must be at least 75% owned and controlled by U.S. investors, this departure would seem to place Virgin America’s status as a US-owned carrier in jeopardy. Unless the airline has somehow been able to find other U.S. based investors to fill the void. But as far as we have heard, that has not happened.

Word on the street for the last several months has been that Black Canyon Capital and Cyrus Capital Partners were going to pull the trigger on their investment. Heck, in my opinion they would have been crazy not to. The two negotiated a sweet “out clause” when they put money into the venture.

By pulling the plug now, the two were entitled to receive all of their original investment back, plus 8% interest, amounting to roughly $150 million combined between the two.

Not bad, considering the airline the two “invested in” has done nothing but lose hundreds of millions of dollars since its start-up — a fact the airline couldn’t hide any longer after it was finally forced to submit its Form 41 DOT data to the DOT recently.

A normal person could conclude that if, in fact, Black Canyon and Cyrus have exited the mood-lighted building, Virgin America would now either a) have new investors already lined up or b) be in violation of DOT ownership requirements.

It is important to note that Virgin has not issued a statement or release trumpeting the corralling of any additional U.S. investors.

One would think that the airline would have been out in front of this — announcing new money — as a way to deflect talk of its being in violation of DOT ownership regulations or of being in danger of a possible shutdown.

But they have been noticeably mute.

Which is exactly why we are talking today about how it would appear the airline is, just as Alaska Air Group claimed in a recent complaint to the DOT, not in compliance with the DOT foreign ownership rules, and two, yes, this means the airline is in danger of being shut down.

Bleak Cold Day on Wall Street

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Yikes. It wasn’t the bad weather up and down the East Coast today that made investors shiver.

The folks on Wall Street did a find job of doing that on their own.

And not just for airline stocks.

When all the shouting was over, the Dow Jones Industrials ended the day down 299.64 points, or 4.2%. This brought the Dow down to 6763.29. This was the first time the Dow has closed below 7000 since May 1, 1997.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 4.7% or 34.27 points, while the Nasdaq lost 4% or 54.99 points, closing at 1322.85.

The big news pushing stocks lower today concerned insurance giant AIG. The federal government announced that it was increasing its stake in the company by some $30 billion. The total for both U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve investments in the cratering financial giant is now about $163 billion.

The market was in no mood to hear this today, and stocks took the brunt of investors angst as a result.

In the airline sector, the carnage was deep, and it ran pretty much across the board.

Of all the stocks we track at PlaneBusiness, none, not one, was up for the day.

The biggest losers for the day included: AirTran, which lost 15%, closing at 2.54; Hawaiian Airlines, which also dropped back 15% to close at 2.68; US Airways which lost 13%, closing at 2.47; JetBlue, which was down 14% to close at 3.29; Pinnacle, which lost a whopping 20%, closing at 1.12; ExpressJet, which was down 10%, closing at 1.22; and United Airlines, which lost 13% to close at 4.26.

Whew.

That’s all I can say.

Oh, and Southwest shares, which are plumbing unbefore seen depths of late, closed at 5.52, down 6% for the day.

Reader Comment on United Pilots’ Stand on Aer Lingus Deal

Tough crowd out there today.

From the inbox:

“You are not serious about this whiny crap from UA pilots are you?”

Heh.

Let me put it this way. Given what is going on at the airline — I would have expected the airline to have at least discussed this “innovative agreement” with its pilot union before it was announced. At least.

Actually, I’m more interested in an arm-wrestling contest between Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary and United’s Glenn Tilton.

I’d pay big bucks for that ticket.