Tag Archives: US Airways

JP Morgan’s Streeter Talks About Breaking Covenants, Not Guitars

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Had to chuckle this morning when I read the JP Morgan Equity/Debt review of American Airlines’ earnings release.

As most of you know, Jamie Baker is the equity analyst for JP Morgan, but Mark Streeter handles the debt side.

Mark’s snarky side came out today in his headline as he wrote in the note,

Some Airlines Bust Guitars, Some Also Bust Covenants – We have been worried for some time that airlines (AMR, LCC & UAUA, more so than others) could violate bank debt covenants later this year or early next year if industry conditions don’t suddenly improve. AMR likely shared this concern as the company last month sought and received fixed charge coverage relief from banks. Specifically, the AMR bank debt fixed charge coverage ratio for the June 2009 quarter was waived. Going forward, the ratio remains at 0.95x for the September 2009 quarter (no change) but stays at that levels through year-end (i.e. lower threshold) with reduced step-ups through September 2010 as well. While our more bearish-than-consensus revenue forecast continues to show AMR tight (if not busting) covenants during 2H09 (along with others), additional bank relief remains achievable, in our view.”

As for the all-so-important liquidity question, the duo commented,

AMR’s Liquidity Pantry Is Still Fairly Well Stocked – Unlike the pantry at USAirways, which we consider bare, and the pantry at United, which is stocked with canned goods long past their expiration date (i.e. older aircraft and parts that are very tough to finance), AMR boasts of $3.7 billion in unencumbered asset provisions, real liquidity flexibility, in our opinion (with the untapped AAdvantage forward mileage sale the most obvious component). Now, not all of the contributing assets to this estimate are readily-financeable (such as AMR’s ownership of Eagle) but at least $2-$2.5 billion represents real liquidity flexibility in our opinion. Furthermore, $500 million of additional assets will become unencumbered later this year (including some not-too-old-to-refinance aircraft falling out of maturing EETCs). The bottom line is that USAirways and United are at or past V1 in their burn-the-furniture liquidity takeoff rolls, in our view, while AMR is just now nudging its throttles forward, with still-adequate runway remaining. Boiled down, we remain of the view that Chapter 11 can be averted at AMR.”

US Airways Media Day: Not a Bad Way To Spend A Day

Yesterday was Media Day at US Airways. And a fine time was had by all.

Really.

Considering that the airline did not have any major news to release, the day was nonetheless helpful. Or as one newbie to the event told me late yesterday afternoon, “I’m glad I came. It helped me to understand where the airline sees itself and the niche it occupies much better.”

The format of the day was much the same as it always is. The day opens with remarks by CEO Doug Parker, which are then followed by presentations by Scott Kirby, President, Robert Isom, COO, Derek Kerr, CFO and C.A. Howlett, the airline’s government affairs VP. During lunch, all the top execs of the company then make themselves available for questions and answers from the floor.

After this — the airline had a panel of those staffers who were most directly associated with the airline’s response to the Flight 1549 crash landing into the Hudson River on January 15th. It was the perfect way to end the day as everyone involved, including Parker, gave their accounts of where they were and what they did after the news hit that the aircraft was in the water. Most interesting were the stories that we had not heard before — such as the fact that Captain Sullenberger was initially told by the company’s representative at the ops center when he called in that he would have to call back — the operations center was really busy because there was a plane down. Sully managed to convince them that he was well aware of that fact.

I’ll talk more about Doug Parker’s opening comments in this week’s PBB, but the Cliff’s Notes version would be that airline managements need to stop comparing the financial performance of their respective airline to industry peers and start managing airlines like any other profitable business.

Of course, the fact that Congress tends to look at the airline industry as a type of “public good” and not an industry that is run for the benefit of shareholders is a big problem. He talked a great deal about this, and I agree, if the airlines are going to be deregulated, then they need to be truly deregulated. They still aren’t, in a lot of ways.

As for the airline itself, it estimates that it will make between $400 and $500 million this year in ancillary revenues, and no, it has not been able to detect any type of “booking away” as a result of their additional baggage fees. The airline also said that this year, any new ancillary revenue changes will probably only be made in the area of seat selection — as the airline continues to work on new technology that will allow passengers even more choice, in terms of price and seat selection.

The big story of the day was the airline’s quite remarkable turnaround in operations in 2008. We’re talking time of departure, time of arrival, lost bags, all those things. We told you guys last year that we liked this guy Robert Isom. And this year the numbers proved that the new COO of the company knows his stuff.

For 2009, the plan is to keep improving these operational aspects of the airline — with more focus being put on those aspects of the customer experience that are direct — web site ease of use, ease of rebooking, those types of things.

The most interesting thing I took from Isom’s talk this year? I remember at one point in 2008, there was some grousing from other carriers that the only reason US Airways was doing so much better in the DOT statistics was because the airline had padded their block hours. Even US Airways’ pilots jumped on the bandwagon, accusing the airline of being “inefficient.”

Yesterday, as Robert showed us graphically, while yes, the airline did initially pad the block hours a bit earlier in the year — the airline actually not only went back to the “pre-padded” schedule in the last part of 2008, but it even cut block hours to a level lower than when the airline started 2008. And the airline still managed to post very respectable operational numbers.

Oh, and finally — the really important news.

Monday night the airline held a dinner for those of us in town for the event at Cadillac Ranch in Tempe. Cadillac Ranch has a mechanical bull. As I forecast in this week’s PBB, yes, Elise Eberwein, SVP of Communications and People at the airline rode the bull. Yes, Scott Kirby, President, rode the bull.

But surprisingly, neither won the contest.

Al Hemenway — the airline’s VP of Labor Relations took the prize. In belted khaki chinos no less.

I was impressed.

Even after repeated second and third attempts by Elise and Scott, and other attempts by media folks and US employees, Al hung on to win the prize.

Only appropriate that he persevered, considering he deals with labor relations, right?

I’ll post some pictures later. Need to get out of here. Have to go check in over at the Biltmore for the Symposium. Talk to you later.

Sullenberger Signs $3 Million Book Contract

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This just in fromMediaBistro.com’s “Revolving Door” Email Blast:

HarperCollins imprint William Morrow will give [US Airways Captain] Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger $3 million for two books: one memoir, one full of his “inspirational” poetry.”

Guess this means he can probably stop moonlighting as an aviation consultant in an attempt to make ends meet.

Bleak Cold Day on Wall Street

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Yikes. It wasn’t the bad weather up and down the East Coast today that made investors shiver.

The folks on Wall Street did a find job of doing that on their own.

And not just for airline stocks.

When all the shouting was over, the Dow Jones Industrials ended the day down 299.64 points, or 4.2%. This brought the Dow down to 6763.29. This was the first time the Dow has closed below 7000 since May 1, 1997.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 4.7% or 34.27 points, while the Nasdaq lost 4% or 54.99 points, closing at 1322.85.

The big news pushing stocks lower today concerned insurance giant AIG. The federal government announced that it was increasing its stake in the company by some $30 billion. The total for both U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve investments in the cratering financial giant is now about $163 billion.

The market was in no mood to hear this today, and stocks took the brunt of investors angst as a result.

In the airline sector, the carnage was deep, and it ran pretty much across the board.

Of all the stocks we track at PlaneBusiness, none, not one, was up for the day.

The biggest losers for the day included: AirTran, which lost 15%, closing at 2.54; Hawaiian Airlines, which also dropped back 15% to close at 2.68; US Airways which lost 13%, closing at 2.47; JetBlue, which was down 14% to close at 3.29; Pinnacle, which lost a whopping 20%, closing at 1.12; ExpressJet, which was down 10%, closing at 1.22; and United Airlines, which lost 13% to close at 4.26.

Whew.

That’s all I can say.

Oh, and Southwest shares, which are plumbing unbefore seen depths of late, closed at 5.52, down 6% for the day.

Airline Stocks Tumble as It’s One Messy Day On the Street

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Poking our head around the damage from today’s Wall Street activities, it was not a good day for the airline stocks, as almost every one of them ended lower for the day.

While the Dow Jones Industrials were down as much as 200 points earlier in the day, the Dow ended the day down 80.05 points, or 1.09% for the day.

However, the Dow Transports and the AMEX Airline Index both had a more miserable run of it. The AMEX Airline Index ended the day down a little more than 4%, closing at 16.43, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index ended down 4%, closing at 2602.06.

The top losers for the day included: AirTran, which lost 9%, closing at 3.27; Alaska, which lost 7%, closing at 22.27; JetBlue which lost 7%, closing at 4.26; US Airways, which lost 10%, closing at 3.30; Southwest Airlines, which dropped another 7%, closing at 6.07; and Continental, which ended the day down 6%, closing at 11.15.

Ugly day.

US Airways’ Captain of Flight 1549

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A number of news sources are reporting tonight that Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger, III, was Captain of the US Airways’ flight that was successfully ditched today in the Hudson River.

It seems that Captain Sullenberger has a website. Actually the website is for his consulting business — Safety Reliability Methods, Inc.

It would appear the guy knows his stuff.

Airbus Ditch Button

Okay, if you are a pilot, you already know this.

But I didn’t know that the Airbus aircraft apparently have a “ditch” button in the cockpit that automatically closes any vent, air outlet, opening, whatever, to the outside, in preparation for a potential water landing.

Just listening to Greg Fieth, former NTSB investigator, on NBC talking about how this works.

Pretty interesting. I was not aware of this. Clearly today that might have been helpful, as the aircraft stayed above water long enough for everyone to get off.

All you Boeing fans out there — do they have something similar on Boeing aircraft?

US Airways: My Next Airplane is Going to be a ChrisCraft

Yours truly was minding her own business this afternoon, driving back home from Ft. Worth at 75 miles an hour, when all of a sudden I start getting messages about a US Airways plane that had ditched in the Hudson on my phone.

Now, being the card-carrying airline geek that I am — you can only imagine that it was a miracle I got home and did not run into anyone while I drove and tried to 1) get my emails 2) get online and/or 3) find out what had happened.

According to reports, US Airways’ Flight 1549 took off from LaGuardia to Charlotte at 3:03 PM Eastern time. Reports say that the pilot reported a “double bird strike” and apparently the crew felt it necessary to put the aircraft down in the Hudson.

Listening to NPR just now, the reporter there interviewed one of the passengers who said the plane essentially “glided in” on the water. As you can see in this photo, the aircraft remained floating, and passengers were rescued from the wings and the top of the aircraft.

What is unbelievable is that all reports say that all passengers and crew were rescued.

We can only hope that this is the case.

If so — well done and kudos to the flight crew.

I’m sure we’ll all know more as the evening goes on.

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PHOTO/NBC NEWS

US Airways’ December Traffic Numbers: Very Good

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Oops. Members of the US Airways’ fan club sent me notes last night asking me why it was I hadn’t talked about their traffic numbers in yesterday’s post.

Okay, okay. Nothing intentional. I simply forgot. Quiet down!

Actually US Airways posted pretty darn good traffic numbers for December.

US Airways said Wednesday that its mainline RPMs were down 1.1% for the month, against a capacity shrinkage of 6.4%. Ding, ding, ding. You know what that means.

Yep. It means that load factor went up. And by a healthy 4.4 points to 80.3% — which set a new record for the airline.