Monthly Archives: February 2007

egads…

Sorry about the previous posts and their various editing snafus. Seems that our new version of Ecto decided it did not want to behave. It has now been beaten back into submission.

Southwest Move to San Francisco: A Shot to the Flank of United

The Thinking

We received a note from one of our readers last week, pointing out that I neglected to point out in our note about Southwest moving back to SFO, that this is yet another move by Southwest into a United stronghold.

Shame on me. Must be all that King Cake I’ve been munching on of late. It has slowed my brain activity. Thankfully Mardi Gras is next week, so I won’t have to see anymore of it after that.

But yes, of course he’s right.

While he agreed that the pre-entry news was clearly a direct warning shot aimed at Virgin, the bigger impact is going to be on United, and to a lesser extent, Frontier.



Think about it. United is now plane-constrained, so they aren’t going to be able to go after Southwest to much extent out of SFO. Furthermore this is the third major United hub Southwest has gone into of late. Denver, Dulles, now San Francisco.

“In sum, I don’t see this as being directed at JetBlue much at all. The only places JetBlue flies to SFO from are places that Southwest probably won’t be in for the foreseeable future: JFK and BOS. In fact this is more Southwest looking at what JetBlue is doing and saying “hey, what a good idea, let’s try that ourselves…”

As for Frontier, if Southwest decides to set up San Francisco- LAX service, Frontier’s attempts to get their SFO/LAX service off the ground will probably come to a grinding halt.

Tickers: (NYSE:LUV), (Nasdaq: UAUA), (Nasdaq: FRNT), (Nasdaq: JBLU)

What Happened to the Net Income?

Air Canada Logo

We’re going to be talking about the results from Air Canada this week in PlaneBusiness Banter, but for those of you who haven’t had a chance to glance at their financial results — just a heads up. When was the last time you saw an airline report quarterly results and not report a net income figure?

Yeah, they’re real fun to try and dissect.

Not only that, but the operational stats they give for the airline this quarter are shown only in terms of percentage changes, so one can’t easily compare actual cost/ASM numbers, or RASM numbers, for example, with those posted by other airlines.

Quarterly earnings reports should not be an exercise in “Hide and Seek.”

Speaking of all things north of the border, WestJet is scheduled to report its fourth quarter numbers tomorrow. (Wednesday)

The Clock Strikes Twelve for Comair Pilots; Agreement Minutes Later

061115 Comair Jets

The clock struck midnight last night with no tentative agreement between Comair and its pilots’ union on the table.

But about 20 minutes later, the two sides came to terms.

Comair was prepared to impose $15.8 million in concessions at 11:59 p.m. Monday, if no agreement had been reached.

The deadline had already been extended once. The original deadline expired Friday night after the pilots’ union presented management at Comair with a new proposal. The airline extended the time limit, saying it needed time to study the new proposal.

But, you say, why are the pilots and the airline going through all this again. Didn’t these two already sign off on a concessionary agreement before?

Yes, they did.

But when the flight attendants okayed a deal in November that saw annual costs cut by $1 million less than had been requested by the airline — that put contracts already negotiated with the pilots and the mechanics up for grabs. The airline was successful in getting the mechanics to agree to a modified deal with the airline — the pilots would not go so quietly into the dark night.

Pilots at the airline now have until March 4 to ratify the deal. Pilots at the airline are represented by ALPA. If the pilot group does not vote to ratify the agreement, the airline will implement wage cuts and other concessions as per the recent U.S. Bankruptcy Court ruling.

Big News Friday

Southwestairlines

No, I’m not talking about US Airways’ CEO Doug Parker’s DUI encounter with the Scottsdale police.

I’m talking about the announcement that Southwest Airlines is going to start flying to San Francisco again. The last time the airline flew into SFO was in March of 2001. At the time of its departure, the airline cited the airport’s high costs. In an article in today’s San Francisco Chronicle, SFO airport director John Martin said that he has been wooing Southwest for the last year and a half. Martin also claims that SFO’s landing fees and other airport charges have been slashed 30% over the past five years.

Southwest announced it will begin service at SFO this fall with at least 14 daily departures and a mix of short, medium and long flights. No other details were given.

Talk about a move that hits squarely in the jaw of not one, but two competitors, this would be it. Or maybe I should say one competitor and one would-be competitor.

To Virgin America, the move sends a clear message. “You want to play in the big leagues? Get ready.”

And to JetBlue, which just recently announced new service into SFO beginning in May (in what was the first shot across the bow to Virgin’s still grounded operation), the message would be something like, “The more, the merrier.”

I do so love a good street fight. Don’t you?

Tickers: (NYSE:LUV, Nasdaq: JBLU)

One More Major Reason for Oil Price Spike

Oil-1

Thanks to our Brown Bag Analyst here at PlaneBusiness, who was paying more attention to news today than I was, being tied to the keyboard as I have been for much of the day.

Apparently Occidental Petroleum Corp. said today it would be unable to meet commitments to its customers after a fire led to the shutdown of most production from its Elk Hills field in California. Elk Hills is California’s largest gas field. 60% of the field’s output is crude oil.

Bloomberg reports that there is no timeframe for resuming production at the field, which normally has an output of 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, said Occidental spokeswoman Susie Geiger. About 95% of output is shut down. Occidental spokeswoman Jan Sieving confirmed in an interview that the company declared force majeure.

Yep. I’d say that was the biggest reason for the jump.

Just When People Were Getting Excited About $55/barrel Oil

Oil

It’s going bye-bye.

Today the price of crude closed at $59.71, up a hefty two bucks a barrel.

Why all the excitement? Good question, especially after the price of crude fell 2% on Wednesday.

Couple of reasons. Continued bitter cold in the northern U.S. with predictions of more to come, along with a little good-old-fashioned short covering session on Wall Street. Oh, and yes, the DOE reported that stocks of distillates (which includes the precious jet fuel) and crude both declined for the week, ending Fri. Feb. 2 yesterday.

Guess it took a day for that news to sink in.

Look for continued volatility here before we start to see a trend that sticks.

Nice Catch for Pinnacle’s New Colgan Air Acquisition

As you know, Pinnacle recently purchased Colgan Air.

Today it was announced that Colgan will be a new regional flying partner to Continental Airlines.



According to Bloomberg,

“Continental Airlines has selected a Pinnacle Airlines unit to fly 15 turboprops that will ferry passengers to its Newark, N.J., hub.

The flights by Pinnacle’s Colgan Air will begin in early 2008, Houston-based Continental said Monday.

Continental and Memphis, Tenn.-based Pinnacle reached a 10-year contract for flying the 74-seat Bombardier Q400s.

The accord will let Continental collect passengers for its U.S. and international flights at Newark’s Liberty International Airport from cities too small for larger planes. Pinnacle is a regional carrier spun off from Northwest Airlines Corp. in 2003.

The planes will operate under the Continental Connection name.”