Category Archives: PlaneBriefs

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Good evening everyone! How was your Memorial Day weekend? Mine was spectacular! I hope you had a great start to summer as well.

This week we have somewhat of a hodge podge in PlaneBusiness Banter.

First, we have a great analysis this week by Brett Snyder, aka Cranky Flier. This week Brett, who moonlights as a contributing editor for PlaneBusiness, looks at American Airlines and how it has been performing out of its home turf — DFW — over the last several years. In a nutshell — not well. But he dives into the data and tells us just how poorly. In addition, he stumbled upon a little nugget of information about Spirit and one particular American route that we think subscribers will find particularly interesting.

Bottomline? There’s a lot of opportunity here if American can get its act together. (And given the track record of the new management team at American, we’re betting this is going to be the case.)

We also talk a bit more this week about the situation in Dulles, and give you an extensive review of how the combined market looks out of DCA and IAD for both American/US Airways and United Airlines. Oh, there are lots of interesting things to look at here.

Meanwhile, out in the Northwest, Delta Air Lines and Alaska Air Lines opened up yet another round of artillery fire last week with a series of announcements (within hours of each other) concerning new service out of Seattle.

I’m not so sure how this story is going to end. But in the meantime, it’s certainly interesting to watch.

Delta and Travelport announced their new deal last week — the one that will see Delta taking control of its PSS development and management from Travelport. But Travelport will continue to host the system. I’ll tell you why I think this is a good deal for both sides.

Ryanair announced its fiscal year and fourth quarter earnings last week. While results were down, on a year-over-year basis, analysts are apparently convinced that the airline will be successful in its easyJetrification process. Ahem.

All this, and much, much, more, including a great week for airline stocks, in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Good evening boys and girls! This week’s edition of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted!

This week we take an in-depth look at the recent earnings calls from both Air Canada and WestJet. We also take a summary look at the recent earnings reported from the big three GDS players — Amadeus, Travelport, and Sabre. 

Bottomline — Sabre and Travelport still have too much debt on their balance sheets. Travelport said in comments after their earnings call that they may sell their piece of Orbitz. I think that would be a great idea, as I’m not sure an IPO would go over that well right now. I mean, look at how underwhelmed the Street was with the Sabre IPO.

As for Sabre, they bent over backwards to emphasize to investors as part of their call that they are working to reduce the level of debt on their balance sheet. But it’s still too high.

That’s the not-so-good part of leveraged buyouts.

As for the Air Canada/WestJet results, I can’t say I was that overwhelmed or impressed with much of anything I heard from either airline. Clearly the big loser here was Bombardier, as Air Canada announced it has decided not to replace its Embraer 190s. Most people had assumed they would place an order for the new Bombardier CSeries aircraft. Nope.

In other news, the City Manager of Dallas finally did what he should have done originally — given what the Department of Justice said he needed to do. As a result, Virgin America now has two gates at Love Field.

The new routes that Southwest will start flying after the Wright Amendment goes away in October seemed to have been leaked over the weekend. No updates on what flights or service may be modified or cut to accommodate the new service. We expect all of this to be announced Monday.

Meanwhile, last week was a fairly flat one for the airline sector, with stocks evenly split between winners and losers.

And what did you think about the news that the new ULCC-version of Frontier Airlines is taking over the Z gates (the ones that are easily accessible) at Dulles? We like it.

We talk about all of this and much, much, more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. Another week. Another issue of PlaneBusiness Banter jammed packed with more in-depth earnings reports that you know what to do with. This week we have full 1Q14 reports on Allegiant Travel, Spirit Airlines, Republic Holdings and SkyWest. We also give you a brief rundown on the recent 1Q14 results reported by IAG, parent of British Airways; Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM.  Short and sweet? All three European airlines saw much improved numbers over those of 1Q13.

Next week we will wrap up 1Q14 earnings with full reports on WestJet and Air Canada. We’ll also take short looks at the earnings from Travelport, Amadeus and Sabre. Ah yes, the GDS folks.

But it’s not all RASM, CASM, and yield this week. Oh no.

I got to crawl around inside one of only four Airbus A350-900s XWB’s last week as the aircraft made its first appearance in the United States. What a beautiful airplane. We’ll even show you a cool close-up of the aircraft’s very sleek and oh-so-sexy curved wingtips. We really liked this airplane. A lot.

We’ll also get you up to date on the Virgin America-Southwest-Delta-DOJ-DOT-Dallas City Council-Love Field-Dallas City Manager Soap Opera. Short and sweet? There was still no decision as of late Friday night. If the city manager is smart, he will allow American to sublease the two gates involved to Virgin. That is the only airline the Department of Transportation has deemed “appropriate” for the gates per the DOJ’s American Airlines/US Airways merger agreement parameters.

If not — then I guess we can get ready for a long legal fight.

It was a strange week on Wall Street last week. While the Dow hit a new all-time high Friday, the Nasdaq continues to struggle. For airline stocks, it was not such a great week. We’ll go over the details.

Finally, as we discussed in last week’s issue, it does appear that JetBlue’s CEO Dave Barger is on his way out. A story that Bloomberg did last week seemed to confirm the Board has made the decision — we’ll give you the details on how we see all this finally playing out.

All of this and much, much more in this week’s quite hefty issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Us? We were busy little elves this weekend. Earnings Elves. Yes, this week we give our usual thorough treatment to the recent earnings results (and calls) from Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Air Group. 

Of the four, Alaska clearly outperformed on margins, while Hawaiian posted a loss that was much less than expected, which made analysts happy. Southwest posted good numbers, while JetBlue did not.

Speaking of the Blue Crew, we also talk this week about last Monday’s seismic executive shifts that occurred at JetBlue, just four days after the airline reported anemic 1Q14 earnings.

Rob Maruster, COO, has now left the building, as have three other former VPs, including Jenny Dervin, VP of Corporate Communications. There were a laundry list of job changes announced at the airline, most of which took place on the operational side, although Marty St. George was promoted to SVP Commercial, up from SVP of Marketing and Commercial Strategy. Essentially he took Robin Hayes’ old spot. (Hayes took over as President on Jan. 1).

Lots of things going on at JetBlue. Remember the airline is scheduled to roll out its new Mint trans-con product in the not-too-distant future as well.

Oh, and about Virgin America’s claim the week before that getting the okay from the city of Dallas to take over possession of those two gates at Love Field was a mere formality? We didn’t think so. Last week it was a parade of consulting studies, letters, rebuttals and rebuttals to rebuttals as Southwest Airlines trotted out its study that showed — surprise! — that it should be given the use of the gates. Virgin responded. Southwest responded again. Then Delta Air Lines kept its argument alive about why it should be given the gates. (I’m not sure why Delta continues to fight this fight, as the DOJ has said from the beginning that the gates would be awarded to a “low cost” competitor.

Monday (tomorrow), Sir Richard Branson rides into town in an attempt to lobby, smooze and cajole the locals.

I still think when all is said and done the DOJ will prevail. This means Virgin will get the gates.

But hey this is North Texas. We all know that aviation works in mysterious ways around here. (Did someone say, “Wright Amendment?”)

It was a good week last week for the airline sector, no complaints there.

Energy prices also behaved for the most part last week. Again, no complaints.

Oh, and those Alan Mulally rumors? You know. The ones that say he is going to be the next CEO of United? Get a life guys. It ain’t happenin.

It is a long issue this week. Lots to keep you occupied.

Subscribers can access this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter here. 

 

 

 

JetBlue Pilots Vote for ALPA Representation

Hi there everyone!

Since I essentially finished up last week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter in the wee hours, fell into bed, and was never heard from again, I figured everyone out there in non-subscriber land was due at least some kind of blog post. (Oh and thanks for all the “get better” emails. I, as you can tell, have been working hard on doing just that! Sleep and drugs. Hey, they work! I’m better!)

So instead of talking about all the great things we talked about in last week’s issue of PBB, let’s talk about the airline hot news flash from Tuesday.

As we had predicted, it was announced today that pilots at JetBlue voted heavily in favor of representation with the Air Line Pilots Association. (ALPA) The vote was announced earlier this afternoon.  The final “yes” vote was, according to tweeted comments we saw from ALPA, a “little over 71%” in favor. A press conference is scheduled for this afternoon. May be happening as I type.

There are somewhere between 2500-2700 pilots that are affected.

This is not the worst thing in the world to happen to JetBlue, although the stock took the expected hit when the news hit the wires, and management had been acting, and making comments to the effect that it would be a highly negative turn of events if their “direct” relationship with their employees was tampered with.

It’s not a highly negative turn of events. Things going forward will simply be….different.

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. This week’s edition of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

There is obviously a lot more to say about this week’s issue, but I have a confession to make. I need to go to bed. Yours truly has been fighting a rather serious respiratory infection for almost two weeks, and well, my energy today has finally left the building.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more dish.

In the meantime, go hard boil some eggs or work on your Easter bonnet.

Talk to you tomorrow!

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Good evening everyone! It is that time again. This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

Alas, I was supposed to be in Dublin this week, attending the CAPA “Airlines in Transition” Conference, but I came down with a rather nasty respiratory ailment before leaving Phoenix last weekend, and well, here I am. Sitting in the DFW Metromess. Today was day seven of my bout with whatever it is I have (had) and I am happy to report that I finally feel like I have turned the corner.

But in the meantime, my hot date with one of American’s new 777-300s to Heathrow had to bite the dust. Shame. Just a damn shame.

However, this is good news for subscribers, as it gave me plenty of time to write. And it was a busy week.

First, we had more updated guidance from the airlines re: 1Q14 results. We had no real changes this week, but American will come in a bit lower than expected, while Alaska upped its guidance. JetBlue will post a weak quarter, but it still appears that United Airlines will be the only U.S airline to post a loss for 1Q14. The size of the loss is the question, as there is a wide range of analyst estimates out there — even today.

We talk about the significance of the resounding “NO” vote on the proposed pilot contract at Republic Holdings this week.  Meanwhile, both SkyWest and Mesa Air Group got nice shiny new Embraer E-175s last week — the first E-175s for each airline. Mesa will be flying 30 for  United Airlines as United Express; SkyWest will be flying 40.

Meanwhile, out at the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airline Symposium last week, American Airlines President Scott Kirby said that American should make a decision on who will get the rest of its E-175 flying “shortly.”

I tend to think that means Republic is going to be out of the running, given the resounding “no” vote on the pilot contract.

We talk a lot this week about the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airline Symposium. And I’ll talk about it even more in next week’s issue.

Here in the Metromess, American Airlines more or less evicted American Eagle, aka Envoy this week. Envoy will be moving its headquarters to an office building in Irving, on the Northeast side of DFW International.

American also announced a series of changes to its product offerings, and some tweaks to its frequent flyer program this week as it seeks to harmonize the operations of American and US Airways.  Actually I thought some of the changes were quite positive, but hard core Flyer Talk types were up in arms over the fact the airline had not given enough notice on some of the changes, and had not been up front about changes to some little used programs that are essentially going away.

In other news, the DOT issued its February Air Travel Consumer Report this week. United once again lagged its peers; Delta pretty much led the major group of four (except in one category) and Southwest/AIrTran continue to struggle. Alaska also turned in a very good month. And no, we won’t talk about the number of cancellations that ExpressJet endured. Or rather, that passengers on ExpressJet endured.

It’s been a cruel, cruel winter.

One airline analyst published a note last Friday in which he makes the case that it’s only a matter of time before the major airlines begin to charge for overhead bin space, as does Frontier Airlines. In this scenario, customers who purchase tickets through an OTA would be forced to pay a fee ($25) to take a rollerboard, or other overhead bin-sized carryall on board. If you purchased a ticket on an airline’s website, you would not be dinged. And of course, top tier flyers wouldn’t have to pay at all.

Is Wolfe Research analyst Hunter Keay nuts or brilliant? Or both?

We give you our take.

It was a wacky week for airline stocks for the week ending April 4 — as shares of Air Canada gained more than 40% — merely because the airline guided to better than expected 1Q14 results. Who says the concept of the airline sector being a trading sector is dead?

Whew.

Finally, my thanks to Deb McElroy, VP with Airports Council International: North America. She was kind enough to invite me to present the keynote address at the organization’s yearly conference which was held this week here in Dallas. Was very cool to meet the Mayor of Dallas, Mike Rawlings, (who used to be an old advertising man, probably why I liked him) and the new head of ACI, Kevin Burke. Also always nice to see some subscribers in the crowd! (And no one complained about my “Barry White” voice!)

Anyway, you get the picture. We have a lot to talk about in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter.

 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello earthlings. We’re coming to you a bit earlier than usual this week. Yes, yours truly is on the road. All good. Just wreaks havoc with the PlaneBusiness Banter  publishing schedule.

After I finish this, I will make my way over to the Westin Kierland in Scottsdale where this year’s Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airline Symposium opens up. Yours truly is moderating a panel this year, so I need to visit with my panel members tonight and make sure we know what the heck we’re going to talk about. Always a good thing.

All kidding aside, I am honored to have been asked to moderate this year. This is always a great industry conference.

Meanwhile, this week’s issue of PBB is now posted. What are we talking about this week? 1Q14 stock performance first and foremost.

It as a very strong quarter for the airline sector — but particularly the U.S. major airlines. We review how everyone did, and then we’ll take a look at some revisions in 1Q14 earnings estimates, and we take a look at Buckingham Research analyst Dan McKenzie’s latest competitive capacity analysis.

For those of you who are due proceeds from the final equity distribution of AAMRQ shares, that will take place on April 8. This last distribution will be the largest of the four — so shareholders of AAL shouldn’t get nervous if the stock price bobbles around a bit after this last distribution.

Meanwhile, we still don’t have one verifiable piece of wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

Of course that has not stopped CNN from continuing its shameless, pitiful, and at times, embarrassing coverage of the missing aircraft.

We have the latest example of that for you as well. We couldn’t resist.

This week Asiana filed a response to the NTSB in regard to its fatal crash at SFO last year. Was interesting to read the airline’s attempt to blame the software in the Boeing 777 jet for the accident. I don’t think so. While it may be the case that use of auto throttle and the auto pilot in the aircraft can be a little confusing, pilots should know how the system works. They should also know when not to land, i.e., when an approach is not stabilized.

But we all know how the official NTSB investigation process works. At this point everyone is trying to jockey for position to minimize potential liability issues.

One accident we have not heard much about from the NTSB is the Southwest Airlines accident at LaGuardia last July. In fact, unlike the Asiana crash, the NTSB has not held a hearing on the accident yet. Emails sent to a press contact at the NTSB this week went unresponded to, in regard to a potential hearing date.

Hey, all this, and much, much, more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello all great friends and fans of the airline industry. It’s that time again. That’s right. This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

This week we pick up where we left off last week with our take on this year’s ISTAT Americas Conference.  Factoid of the week: Bet you didn’t know there is an airline leasing company that only leases one kind of airplane — Airbus A380s. But there is.

Speaking of Airbus, is the manufacturer going to build an A330neo? We’ll tell you what Air Lease founder and CEO Steve Hazy had to say about this. Among other topics.

Meanwhile, it was a busy week in terms of labor pains.

First, pilots at American Eagle voted down the proposed tentative agreement with American Airlines.  We can now all watch as Eagle, aka Envoy, ends up becoming a very stagnant entity as the airline will in all probability move forward with the RFP process involving third party providers regarding new E-Jet flying.

Interestingly, we had been hearing that the vote on the TA between Republic Holdings and its pilots had been trending negatively as well. Both groups were scheduled to announce the results of the votes today.

Eagle did, but the Teamsters, who represent the pilots at Republic posted a note on their website after the Eagle vote went public, saying that voting had been extended until next Friday, as a result of a “high number of replacement ballot requests.”

Uh-huh.

Meanwhile, strikes by airport workers in Germany are making travel in that country difficult this week and pilots at Lufthansa announced they plan to hold a three day strike against the airline next week — after negotiations between the airline and the pilots union broke down. These negotiations have been going on for more than 2 years.

We have two earnings reports this week to talk about — GOL and Virgin America. GOL posted a loss for 4Q13 and Virgin America posted a profit. How ’bout that?

Look for a Virgin IPO this year.

And what about Etihad? The airline is to failing airlines what Emelda Marcos was to shoes. The airline looks like it may be writing big checks for a stake in both in Air Berlin and maybe…maybe….Alitalia? 

Meanwhile, yours truly was hanging with the big boys in New York last week as I spoke at a meeting of Tzell Travel Group. I shared the platform with Tom Klein, CEO of Sabre, and Ed Bastian, President of Delta Air Lines. Had a blast. Met some great people. Thanks to Jerry Behrens at Tzell for the invite.

Oh, and no, we don’t talk about Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 this week. If you want more speculation, you can watch CNN. 

But while we don’t talk about Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, we do talk about lots of other things in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter! 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. Wow. What a day. Just as we posted this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter, new important information has been published concerning the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.  No surprise that the latest news comes yet again from Jon Ostrower and Andy Pasztor at The Wall Street Journal

Jon and Andy, who have been the ones to break the story on this situation almost all week, just did it again as we published PBB. They have gone with a story in which they report,

“Officials suspect two different systems were shut off after the plane took off last weekend, one shortly after the other, people familiar with the investigation said. About an hour into the flight, the plane’s transponders stopped functioning, making it much more difficult for air-traffic control personnel to track or identify it via radar.

In the ensuing minutes, a second system sent a routine aircraft-monitoring message to a satellite indicating that someone made a manual change in the plane’s heading, veering sharply to the west. Such a turn wouldn’t have been part of the original authorized route programmed in the flight-management computer that controls the autopilot. Those system-monitoring messages are suspected to have been disabled shortly afterward, according to some of these people.”

This news comes after it was Jon and Andy who broke the story that there was evidence the aircraft had deviated from its original course and veered sharply west, after communications ended with civilian authorities.

I’m proud to call Jon a friend.

That’s a long way of saying — if you really want to know what is going on with this situation listen to Jon and Andy when they are on television being interviewed or read their stories. They are working the story like stories should be worked.

Okay, I’ll shut up now.

Speaking of stories, this week a lot of airline CEOs were in New York telling their stories to investors as JP Morgan held their annual airline, transportation, and industrials conference. Unlike years ago, however, they were anything but sob stories.

The biggest news for us out of the conference? No other major airline is guiding to a substantial reduction in revenues as a result of the winter weather cancellations. Except for the one we already knew about — United Airlines. 

Delta Air Lines, in fact, upped some of their guidance. American Airlines says RASM should come in between 2% and 4% as they had already guided.  Southwest said their quarter is still on track.

So the question remains — what’s the problem with United?

Speaking of, this week we welcome back contributing editor Brett Snyder, who returns with yet another Cranky Analysis. This week he looks at the Denver market. We know that Southwest now has the largest market share in the market, but have they been able to snatch any of United’s higher yielding revenue? The answer, and our look at a number of routes out of Denver surprised us.

All this, and much, much, more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

If you will excuse me now, I am off to San Diego for this year’s ISTAT Conference. Can’t wait to see some of our subscribers there. Have a great weekend everyone!