Category Archives: Uncategorized

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays From PlaneBusiness to You

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Hello to all. It’s Christmas. However, for those of you trying to fly into or out of Seattle — it’s not Christmas. It’s just another day in a continuing snow and ice event.

I am back at the unseasonably balmy Worldwide Headquarters in New Orleans today, where I am currently working on a Paula Deen recipe for pumpkin pie that I first tried at Thanksgiving. It got rave reviews from the folks at the table then — and was requested again. So yours truly is hard at work on that endeavor. Or will be after I finish this post.

Then there is the ham. You know the good thing about hams is that they are effortless. You don’t have to do anything except heat them up. And you don’t even have to do that if you don’t want to.

Meanwhile the tree still needs to be finished, a couple of presents wrapped, and the silver polished.

Good thing we don’t sit down to eat until 4!

Here’s hoping that your have a great day today with family and friends — no matter where you are. Even if those “friends” happen to be strangers in some airport or on an airplane. Or coworkers behind a ticket counter.

On Christmas, we’re all family.

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Alabama versus Florida: SEC Championship on The Line Today

Sorry, I couldn’t help it. I saw this and couldn’t stop laughing. What makes it priceless is that as controlling and uptight as Alabama head coach Nick Saban is, you know it must have just sent him over the edge to have seen this picture. Much less the lovely photoshopped CNN breaking news presentation that some unnamed internet fan created for him.

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American Airlines Presentation From Monday

For those of you with inquiring minds, you can access the presentation that American Airlines made to the negotiators for the Allied Pilots Association by clicking here.

Meanwhile, as far as the APA is concerned, they told members yesterday,

“NEGOTIATING UPDATE: After a nearly seven-week break, formal negotiating sessions with AMR resumed this afternoon. According to the National Mediation Board mediator-directed agenda, AMR’s negotiators were slated to offer specific counters to APA’s responses to portions of management’s latest scheduling proposal. To our disappointment, management had no scheduling proposals or responses to discuss. In fact, they were not prepared to conduct bargaining on any area of the contract.

In a subsequent caucus with the NMB mediators, APA discussed the current status of negotiations. Bargaining was suspended and another day was lost because AMR was not prepared to negotiate, did not adhere to the agenda, and was not held accountable by the NMB. They continue to ignore the NMB’s direction and agenda, are non-responsive to APA proposals, and refuse to discuss major issues such as compensation, stagnation and furlough protections.”

As one of our longtime AMR/APA watchers observed this morning, “APA’s version has nothing about walking out or the Powerpoint slide show. That said I think both sides are getting their ducks in a row for the new sheriff coming to town in January.”

Can United Airlines Be This Stupid?

From one of our most revered industry observers, a note this afternoon.

“United cannot be stupid enough to promote Saver awards Denver-Vail. Oh wait. Yes they can.”

I have to say, if the airline is pushing its customers to redeem freebie miles for Denver-Vail in January — Chicago I think you do have a problem. Or maybe more than one.

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Airline Stocks Hit Turbulence: Sluggish Traffic and Higher Oil to Blame

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As ardent followers of the airline stock sector are aware, every month Continental Airlines leads the other airlines in reporting their traffic numbers for the previous month. But the other information the airline issues, along with its traffic numbers, is usually of more interest to us hard core airline fans.

That information, of course, is the RASM estimate the airline issues along with the traffic numbers.

For those of you who are new to this piece of the world, RASM stands for revenue per available seat mile and it is the most widely used “rule of thumb” measure of an airline’s revenue performance.

Last night Continental Airlines reported that it now expects mainline domestic revenue per available seat mile for November 2008 to grow only 4 percent to 6 percent, down significantly from previous expectations for growth in the “low-to-mid teens.”

Not surprisingly, the airline said that this was a result of lower yields. Translation: Lower ticket prices.

This news comes after most airlines over the last month insisted during their earnings call presentations that they were not seeing significant drops in demand.

We have a bit of what we might call an “inconjunct” here.

Jamie Baker, analyst with JP Morgan wrote this morning that while the news was not a complete surprise — it was still enough to push him to sharply reduce his fourth quarter forecast for the airline.

Baker now expects the company to report a loss of $0.56 per share, compared with prior expectations for profit of $0.40.

As Baker said in his note, it wasn’t a question of if — just a question of when the economic meltdown would catch up with airline demand. He expected the industry might have at least a month or so before the full effect hit.

The other problem today? Oil prices.

And here it gets a bit more complicated.

Is the price of oil rising because of a supply and demand issue?

No.

The reason the price of oil is up today is because the dollar is falling.

Remember that oil is priced in dollars. As a result, investors see commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar and pour money into the crude futures market when the greenback falls.

A weak dollar also makes oil less expensive to buyers dealing in other currencies.

There you go. There’s your commodity pricing/falling dollar lesson for the day. Unfortunately the end result — higher oil prices — then affects this sector negatively.

As of this posting oil has soared more than $7 today, and is now trading around $71.50.

PlaneBusiness Banter Posted

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I know. I know. I promised pictures.

Okay, tomorrow. I promise. Really.

Long weekend for yours truly. Another one of our longish earnings issues and it came on top of two days filled with moving activity, topped off by an all-day sojourn over at Southwest on Friday.

Boom. It’s then Saturday. Arrrrrgh.

Anyway, forgive me. LIfe just took over this last week.

However, there is good news for PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers. This week’s issue is now posted and you can read it here.

Where the Hell I’ve Been

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Okay, okay. I know. Some of you have sent me emails this week wondering if I am sick or something.

No — just trying to get settled into the new not-yet-too-comfy confines of the new PlaneBusiness Branch Office in beautiful Las Colinas, Texas. (For those of you who don’t live in the DFW Metroplex, Las Colinas is just the fancy name for “North Irving.”)

But you know how it goes. There is the matter of insurance. The matter of internet connectivity. Then there is the phone. And we can’t forget the basics — like a place to sleep until something better arrives. So that means an air mattress. And then there are the things you forget about. Trash cans. Coffee maker. Trash bags. A knife and a fork. Not to mention a spoon. (Yep, fingers can do in most cases, but it just gets so messy.) Which reminds me. Paper towels.

My thanks to Kroger, TJ Maxx, Target and other fine establishments. They helped me to make my own contribution to jumpstarting the now dead economy a rousing success on Thursday.

Then — there was the matter of Halloween. More on that later today. Meanwhile I have to go get some work started on this week’s PlaneBusiness Banter. This year Holly was a celebrity judge at the Southwest Airlines’ Halloween Event. So…..that means I got no work done yesterday. None. Zilch. (Which, I would say, is about the same amount of work anyone who works at the Southwest headquarters got done as well.)

While I’ve heard stories about Halloween at Southwest for years, I had never experienced it.

It defies a simple one sentence explanation. Much less two.

Like I say, more on that later.

And……I’ll also tell you the story of the great unintended consequence of my Halloween attire that now has me sporting some rather colorful hair.

Talk to you later. Go watch some football in the meantime.